Iran-US Tensions and Conflict RiskBeta
How will the Iran-US standoff evolve amid nuclear concerns and regional proxy conflicts?
Current situation
Iran-US relations remain at a critical juncture in early 2026. Iran's nuclear enrichment program has advanced significantly since the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, with uranium enrichment reaching near-weapons-grade levels. Proxy dynamics across the Middle East — including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi operations in Yemen, and militia activity in Iraq and Syria — continue to shape the strategic calculus. The weakening of Iran's proxy network following the 2023-2024 regional conflicts has shifted the balance, while US force posture in the Gulf region remains substantial. Diplomatic back-channels through Oman and Qatar persist but have not produced breakthroughs.
Scenarios
Updates
RESOLVED: US and Israel launch "Operation Epic Fury" — coordinated airstrikes on Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz targeting military infrastructure. Trump announces "major combat operations". Two carrier strike groups deployed. Iran preparing retaliation
Third round of Iran-US nuclear talks in Geneva ends with no deal. Iran refuses to meet US demands on enrichment. Negotiations collapse
Iran FM Araghchi declares "unprecedented" deal "within reach". Iran preparing draft proposal for Feb 27 Geneva round. Deputy FM says Iran "ready for any necessary steps". But Trump warns limited strikes possible, US maintains largest Mideast military buildup in decades
Next round of Iran-US talks confirmed for Feb 27 in Geneva. Iran preparing draft deal proposal. Trump warns "limited strikes remain possible". US builds largest military presence in Middle East in decades
Iran-US reach agreement on "guiding principles" in Geneva nuclear talks. Iran FM Araghchi: "a new window has opened". US envoys Witkoff and Kushner confirm progress
IRGC conducts live-fire exercises and temporarily closes parts of Strait of Hormuz during Geneva talks. US deploys second carrier group to the region
IAEA reports Iran enrichment levels at 83.7%, near weapons-grade threshold
Oman hosts quiet talks between US and Iranian envoys on regional de-escalation
Methodology
Bayesian probabilistic model incorporating 22 historical precedents of nuclear standoffs, proxy conflicts, and asymmetric confrontations in the Middle East. Weights adjusted for: nuclear threshold proximity, domestic political cycles in both countries, proxy network capacity, and energy market sensitivity. Probability distributions updated with each significant diplomatic or military event. Confidence intervals reflect high inherent uncertainty in volatile multi-actor environments.
Model confidence:96%
Conclusions & Outlook
28 February 2026: the US and Israel launched "Operation Epic Fury" — coordinated airstrikes on Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz. The third round of Geneva nuclear talks collapsed on February 26, with Iran refusing US demands on enrichment. Two days later, two carrier strike groups and the largest US military buildup in the Middle East in decades were used to launch strikes on Iranian military infrastructure. Iran is preparing retaliation.
Important
This is a probabilistic estimate based on historical precedents and current data, not a prediction of the future. Actual outcomes depend on numerous unpredictable factors including leadership decisions, intelligence failures, and unforeseen events. Probabilities are updated as new information becomes available.