Scenario Forecast
Scenario ForecastBeta
Probabilistic analysis of world events based on historical precedents
3 results
GeopoliticsActive
Greenland Sovereignty Dispute
What happens next between the US and Denmark over Greenland?
Diplomatic Resolution
68%
Prolonged Tension
27%
Escalation
5%
88% Model confidence
17 precedents
Read forecast →DiplomacyActive
EU-Russia Relations Trajectory
Will sanctions regime change or diplomatic channels reopen in 2026?
Sanctions Maintained
50%
Partial Diplomatic Thaw
32%
Sanctions Escalation
18%
81% Model confidence
23 precedents
Read forecast →ConflictsResolved
Iran-US Tensions and Conflict Risk
How will the Iran-US standoff evolve amid nuclear concerns and regional proxy conflicts?
Continued Deterrence
0%
Diplomatic Breakthrough
0%
Proxy Escalation
0%
Direct Military Confrontation
100%
96% Model confidence
22 precedents
Read forecast →